The Low Road

On Saturday of last week Barack Obama returned from a wildly successful trip abroad to Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel, Germany, France, and England. On Sunday he was greeted to the following ad:



Besides the fact that he used an image of Obama visiting the troops to make the case that he didn't visit the troops, there are rumors that he had another ad ready to hit him if he did visit the troops.

If that wasn't enough of a cheap shot despite being widely panned as being an inaccurate cheap shot, the McCain camp moved on to their "Celebrity Ad".



Third rate? yes. Demeaning? yep. Low Road? Absolutely. But that's where he's going to leave it right? He's not going to go lower than those two ads?

The Messiah web ad.


This one I have to admit is at least funny. Surely the American Public can see through this campaign of distraction. After Bush ran twice and won using the same techniques, surely people are not going to be fooled again.

Take a look at these national pole numbers from Gallup.


There is a reason they are doing these seemingly low rent ads.....because they work. A Republican operative summed it up best by saying "if the election is about John McCain, we lose, if it is about Barack Obama we have a chance".

John McCain has accused Obama of being willing to lose a war to win an election but it truly looks like he has sold his dignity to win.

Commander in Chief Test

It would be funny if our current Commander in Chief didn't fail this test as well.

"Other" Options

Mark Halperin had a teaser today suggesting that McCain could pick a candidate outside of conventional wisdom. So who could possibly be on that list?

Joe "Bleeping" Lieberman. Recent Rasmussen polls showed him with the highest favorability ratings of any potential candidate. Seriously? Who the f#$! likes this guy. In his own state he has favorability ratings less than 40%. The thought of Joe Lieberman joining the ticket would fire up Democrats more than anyone else.

Carly Fiorina. A terrible CEO of Hewlett Packard, but could bring in big money to McCain. In a campaign that struggles with message discipline, Carly should fit right in. She is known to put her foot in her mouth. Her tenure at HP saw a big down turn and lots of layoffs, but she escaped with a $40 million parachute. Fits right in.

Lindsey Graham. I'm surprised that he isn't on top of the list. There is no Senate crony that is more up Senator McCain's ass than Lindsey Graham. These two spend more time together than Barney and Fred.

Bill Gates. Ok, I don't think he has any shot, but I have seen him mentioned by Politico. Bill Gates? The guy that gave us Windows Vista? This would be the funnest campaign to run against. I'd get that guy from the Apple commercials to do Obama's commercials. Bill Gates? Why not George Bush instead? I bet he has higher approval rates. Bill Gates?

Robert Gates. A pretty good job as the SecDef. Would be pretty hard to go after the ticket on national security issues. The negative is it would further reinforce the notion that John McSame is George Bush's third term.

Jeb Bush. He would fire up the base like no one else. Unfortunately the 70% of the country that aren't right wingers would be scared $hitless.

Michael Bloomberg. I'm really surprised this guy hasn't gotten more play. He may have trouble settling into a # 2 role but so would most of the people listed above. In an election about the economy, who better than a guy that ran New York City after being a successful business man (much more than Romney for instance).

Anatomy of a Republican

Recently I was on another blog that in which the blogger commented in wonderment on some of the recent negativity surrounding Obama's Middle East and European tour. The comments that followed were mostly negative towards Obama and out in left (ok, maybe right) field.

I did post a half hearted rebuttal, but didn't want to be too pointed in my response since most of them were regular readers far be it from me to pick pick a fight on someone else's blog. Which brings me here.......

The comments criticized Obama on a rage of issues from tax policy to the absurd. All of that made me think about the constituency of the Republican Party. I have bucketed the Republican Party into 4 groups.

True Believers The true believer in my estimate make up about 25% of the Republican Party. They are the true right wingers on everything from immigration, the militarty, fiscal policy, et al. A large portion of this group has strong xenophobic and racist tendencies.

True believer example: Ann Coulter, Sean Hanity

True believer's perfect candidate: Newt Gingrich

Fiscal Conservatives: It's all about taxes and spending for this group. Probably about 20% of all Republicans fall in this group. This group accepts but doesn't like the wacko true believers, but puts up with them out of necessity.

Fiscal Conservative examples: Mitt Romney, Steve Forbes

Fiscal Conservatives perfect candidate: Jeb Bush

Neocons: Everything else is secondary to a strong military and hawkish policy. These hawks make up about 15% of all Republicans. Mind you, supporting the troops is also secondary to this group. They talk a good game about how important the troops are but their actions often say otherwise.

Neocon examples: Rudy Giuliani, Dick Cheney

Neocon's perfect candidate: John McCain, Condoleeza Rice (since it's pretty obvious she is easily manipulated)

Boobs: I couldn't think of any way else to describe this group. This group is defined by being easily manipulated to spout the daily talking points. This is the biggest group of Republicans (40ish %). They listen to Rush Limbaugh and believe every word he says. They believe things like "He thinks he’s running for President of the world! What the hell is he doing speaking in Europe when hes not even president." or "Included in this healthcare he has said he’d give it to people who are not even legally allowed to be in our country.". Spouting off Rush Limbaugh's talking points without knowing full well that John McCain made two speeches abroad or that we are spending far less on illegal immigrant health care than we are on Iraqi health care.

These people are easily scared on things like gay marriage or flag burning even though neither issue has any bearing on their quality of life. They are also manipulated on taxes, never mind that the Republicans have but increased their gas prices, lowered their investment income, lowered the value of their housing through their poor regulation and lack of an energy policy.

Boobs Example: Bill O'Reily, Rush Limbaugh

Boobs perfect candidate: George W Bush

A World That Stands As One

I watched a little of Obama's speech in Germany today. From the parts I saw, he gave a very good but safe speech. By safe I mean that he was careful in not making it a rah rah campaign speech. He was careful to stay away from major policy issues that would be inappropriate since he is not the President of the United States.

What he did do was invoke a sense of pride not seen in American politics since Ronald Reagan. Bush sr certainly didn't invoke it. Pre Lewinsky, maybe Bill Clinton did but his later actions ultimately undermined it. W has taken pride and virtually extinguished it.

Today's event may not have been the pivotal moment of the campaign, that will come on August 28th. It was actually humorous watching Republican surrogates try to criticize the event. Much of the criticism focused on how in appropriate it was to make a speech on foreign soil (forgetting for the moment that McCain did that just last month).

When was the last time a President could enhance your pride in the country? The policies that he stands for are important, but almost as important is what he brings to a wounded but strong sense of American Pride.

If you missed it, it's worth the time to watch.

Mixed Bag

This week things seem to be heating up a little in the Presidential campaign. Barack is on his world tour and McCain seems to be nearing a choice on his VP.

Today's mixed bag of thoughts on the Presidential campaign starts off with an observation by Jon Stewart. This week John McCain met with Former President Bush Sr. It would have been a great opportunity to hang around with an elder statesman and make himself look younger. Except for the fact that Bush Sr (83) looks a lot younger than John McCain. Doh!

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While I'm stealing Jon Stewart's comments, he also commented that the press waiting for an Obama mistake over seas is a byproduct of the low expectations set by Bush. (Jon of course was a little funnier)

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I'm not one to get hung up on candidates slipping up on comments. Obama has done it a few times having claimed to have visited 57 states or claiming to be on the banking committee. But John McCain's slip ups are on areas where he should know better.

For him to no know that Sunni's and Al Qaeda are not allies as he has stated on more than one occasion is concerning. Referring to Czechoslovakia on 3 occasions recently when they haven't been a country for 14 years is also a little concerning. Messing up the time line on his signature issue as he did in an interview this week with Katie Couric shows that he may not have a full grasp on facts on the ground as he is given credit for.

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John Edwards seemed to have helped the vetting process by openly going to meet his goomah and her/his new baby. John and his wife may be well liked by the media but I don't get the total free pass he is getting on this. The National Enquirer caught him going into her hotel room and cornered him in the bathroom on his way out. It may be the National Enquirer, but when you are caught you are caught.
I am downgrading his VP odds to 10000000000-1. slightly worse than Barney Frank's odds.

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John McCain is grateful for the offshore drilling issue. It gives his campaign two issues to run on. It's also a simple topic in concept that he can grasp without forgetting key details.

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Why is it every time I see John McCain I expect him to call someone a pinko?

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Working the Refs

In the NBA everyone complains about the refs hoping to plant the seeds into the subconscious until they get favorable calls. John McCain is working the refs, or in this case the media by putting out a video on their favorable coverage of Obama. Unfortunately this is in contrast to another video on his website.

Money in the Bank

I have been asserting that this race isn't as close as it seems, even if the popular vote is only 3-4% difference, I fully expect an Obama wave across the electoral map. 350-400 delegates are not out of the question as the race stands today. Things could happen that change this, but if the election were to be held today I would classify the states as follows:


In the bank (207 Delegates)
I know that on a few of these, the conventional wisdom is that they are swing states but in this climate there is no chance Iowa, Washington, Wisconsin or Oregon go to McCain

New York
Hawaii
Illinois
California
Massachusetts
Maryland
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New Jersey
DC
Vermont
Maine
Delaware
Washington
Wisconsin
Iowa
Oregon

On the way to the Bank (71 Delegates)
These states are trending heavily to Obama and are all far more likely to fall his way than not. The only possible exception is if Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is chosen as McCain's VP it could put Minnesota in play.

Minnesota
Michigan
Colorado
New Hampshire
Nevada
New Mexico
Pennsylvania

Filling out the bank slip (61 Delegates)
These states are the the most competitive of the election (although if Obama gets all the states listed above, he doesn't need any of these to get 270.

Virginia
Indiana
Ohio
Missouri
Montana
North Dakota

Check is in the mail (128 Delegates)
None of these would surprise me to go either way. The voter registration drives in Georgia, South Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi could make the difference. The African American population of these states are noted to give an indication of what a disproportionate turn out could mean to these states.
Almost all polling is smoothed to reflect the racial make up of the state. If African American's vote much higher than their population proportion then it wouldn't take much to flip many of these states Obama's way.

Florida
Georgia (30%)
North Carolina (21.7%)
Mississippi (37.1%)
Alaska
South Dakota
Texas
Louisiana (33%)
Alabama (26.3)

The Check Bounced (70 Delegates)
These states are not going blue even with the biggest electoral tidal wave since Reagan beat Mondale.

Tennessee
Arkansas
Utah
Wyoming
West Virginia
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Kansas
Nebraska
Idaho
Arizona

Field (Organization) of Dreams

My wife and I were discussing today how much it costs to run for President. Like most (normal) people, my wife thinks the cost is too much and it is money spent better elsewhere. Probably true. On the other hand people spent$155 million to see Batman this weekend.

When you read about Barack spending all that money on advertising that is only part true. A large portion of Barack's money is getting spent on building the largest field organization ever in Presidential politics. While McCain and the RNC are spending money on TV 4 months before the election, it's hard to believe that they are getting their money's worth. At this point both candidates presence on the TV news dwarfs the actual ad spend. The vast majority of the exposire they are getting is free.

The Boston Globe gave great insight to how Barack is spending his money these days:

"Between the Obama staff and the Democratic Party staff there will be several thousand" paid operatives on the ground deployed across the country, deputy campaign manager Steve Hildebrand said in an interview. "I don't want to get too specific; it gives away strategy."

Large staffs are working in traditional battleground states and every state will have at least some paid staff, with "large-scale operations in 22 states, medium operations in many others, and small staffs in only a handful of states," Hildebrand said.

Obama and the Democratic Party have about 200 paid staffers working in Florida and more on the way, 90 in Michigan with plans to expand to 200 by August, at least 200 each eventually in Pennsylvania and Ohio, and 50 in Missouri with plans to expand to 150, according to published reports and interviews with Obama campaign officials. Hildebrand said state organizations should be at full strength by the end of August.

Reports filed with the Federal Election Commission show that in May the campaign had a payroll of about 900, not counting nearly 500 part-time workers who were paid stipends. As of May 31, the Obama campaign staff was well over twice the size of the Bush reelection campaign staff in 2004 and nearly three times the size of McCain's current staff, and has expanded significantly since.

Paid staffers on the ground. Registering voters, building a database of volunteers and future donors and laying out the building blocks to build the party in the future.

When you hear polls being reported, they only tell part of the story. The numbers of people that support Barack or McCain only differ by a few percent almost within the margin of error. What doesn't get measured until election day is who turns out their voters better. If you think TV ads will turn out votes then McCain will stand a fighting chance. But if Obama's army of full time staffers and volunteers crank up their turn out in the neighborhood of 65-70% and higher in key states, then you are going to see an electoral landslide.

This organization and infrastructure being built will not only effect this election, but will be lay the groundwork for elections for the next 2-3 election cycles. So if you are concerned about our current direction and want to help do something then go donate. Elections cost money but in the end you hopefully get an ending at least as good as Batman.

A $5,000,000 Birthday Bash

There were recent reports of Barack coming to Boston on August 4th. After inquiring with the campaign I got the following details on the fund raising.

Here are the details from Hannah Banks, who is involved with the Steering Committee:

We just got word that Senator Barack Obama will be celebrating his 47th birthday with us in Boston on Monday August 4th. Since Massachusetts isn't exactly a battleground state, this may be your last chance to see the next President in person. The official invitation will be available soon, but here are the details:

The State Room, 60 State Street, Boston

4:00 Doors Open - Birthday Celebration Reception
Tickets-
Sponsor - $4,600
Friend - $2,300
Guest - $1,000
Senator Obama will speak at about 5:30 p.m.
(maximum: about 800 people)

5:00 pm Birthday Dinner & Photo with Senator Obama
- A dinner for $28,500 per couple* (or $14,250 per person). This
includes the reception and a photo line with Senator Obama (maximum:
about 250 people)

You can contribute now to secure your place by clicking here.

Just Doing the quick math, on the night dinner 250 people x $14,250 donation = $3.6 mil. The earlier event, the minimum would be 400 couples paying $3300 or roughly $1.3 mil.

$5 million day. Not a bad way to spend 5 hours on his birthday.

Four and Oh No

The past few weeks have quietly validated some of Obama's foreign policy positions. It started a few weeks ago when the Bush administration was able to get key concessions from North Korea on their nuclear program through......wait for it..........diplomacy. After years of tough talk that only served to escalate tensions and destabilize the relationship, finally direct engagement made brought about a acceptable solution.

Which brings us to Iran. Funny how this week we learned that the US was having direct conversations with Iran on their nuclear program......Hmmmm think the lowering tensions in the middle east had anything to do with the drop in oil prices?

Direct engagement...... where have I heard that before? Not that there is anything wrong with talking tough, but without direct engagement it accomplishes NOTHING. Thankfully as the administration winds down they are feeling some urgency to do something.

So that's two wins for Obama advocated policies, none for John McCain.

That brings us to Afghanistan.

"As president, I would pursue a new strategy, and begin by providing at least two additional combat brigades to support our effort in Afghanistan," Obama said in an op-ed published Monday in The New York Times, a day before he plans a speech here on his vision for Iraq and Afghanistan.

So what do you think Bush is going to do?

Officials have been hoping that if security continues to improve in Iraq, they may be able to send more units to Afghanistan, where they say violence is increasing because of the flow of militants from neighboring Pakistan.

Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Wednesday that officials are looking for ways to send additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan this year.

Great idea. Let's make that Obama 3, McCain nothing.

Well clearly, North Korea, Iran and Afghanistan are one thing, Iraq is another. Surely Barack's policies wouldn't work there?!?!?!?

On the other hand......

From Reuters:

Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki told a German magazine he supported prospective U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's proposal that U.S. troops should leave Iraq within 16 months.

In an interview with Der Spiegel released on Saturday, Maliki said he wanted U.S. troops to withdraw from Iraq as soon as possible.

"U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes."

It is the first time he has backed the withdrawal timetable put forward by Obama.

It would seem like the Iraqi government support Barack's policies, but the Bush administration certainly never would. Or would they?

The White House this afternoon accidentally sent to its extensive distribution list a Reuters story headlined "Iraqi PM backs Obama troop exit plan - magazine."

The story relayed how Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki told the German magazine Der Spiegel that "he supported prospective U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama's proposal that U.S. troops should leave Iraq within 16 months … ‘U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama talks about 16 months. That, we think, would be the right timeframe for a withdrawal, with the possibility of slight changes,'" the prime minister said.

The White House employee had intended to send the article to an internal distribution list, ABC News' Martha Raddatz reports, but hit the wrong button.

WTF. The White House endorsing Obama's policies? That wouldn't be 4 stamps of approval for Obama's foreign policy, would it? John McCain's foreign policy consists of statements like "we can't afford to lose" and "Why would we talk to someone that wants to eliminate Israel?".

If you can't trust McCain on the economy and Obama's foreign policy positions are getting validated daily, why exactly would you vote for McCain?



When in doubt, make shit up!

VP Odds and Ends (place your bets)

Barack Obama has his month of news all mapped out. This week he announced his fund raising numbers in which he and the DNC collectively raised $74 mil. That was his major news for the week. The next two weeks will be dominated by talk of his over seas visits.

That leaves one week in August before the Olympics start and dominate the news cycles. That would be the perfect week to unveil his VP choice.

A lot has happened since I last speculated on VP's. First and foremost Jim Webb withdrew his name. John Edwards took himself out and put himself back in. So where does that leave his prospects? He has a lot of great choices, but these are the ones I would put money on:

1. Joe Biden 3 to 1. With the drop out of Jim Webb, Joe gives him some of the foreign policy gravitas that Webb brought. A major benefit is that his seat would remain a safe Democratic seat if he were to resign his position.
   
2. Tim Kaine 5 to 1. Well liked governor of Virginia. Would help with that crucial state.
3. Hillary Clinton 8 to 1. Bill and his associations would be a distraction in both the campaign and in the administration. Would have been higher but her supporters have seemingly coalesced behind Obama.
   
4. Kathy Sebelius 10-1. Well liked Governor in one of the few states that Obama has no chance in. Ideologically she is perfectly suited to Barack but maybe too much of a foreign policy lightweigh.
5. Evan Bayh 15 to 1. Former Governor and current Senator of a key swing state. His biggest drawback is that his Senate seat would flip Republican otherwise he would be higher.
6. Wes Clark 18 to 1. Nice offset to McCain's military experience. His comments on McCain's service while accurate was perhaps too blunt and hurt his chances.
7. John Edwards 20 to 1. He has some credibility to the working man. He probably doesn't help with a single state.
8. John Kerry 25 to 1. Before you laugh at this choice, remember that this guy got more votes than any Democrat in history.
9. Bill Richardson 30 to 1. Lot's of experience, would positively bring in New Mexico. and help with Hispanics across the country. Hurt by some of his blatant pandering from his primary campaign. He made incredulous after incredulous comment and did not seem like a serious candidate.
10. Michael Bloomberg 50 to 1. Brings tons of executive experience from both private industry and from running NYC. If the election is about the economy, who would be a better choice.

Chuck Hagel is a nice choice but too Republican outside of Iraq. Chris Dodd is probably too liberal to be an asset. Al Gore- dream on.

On the Republican side, John McCain is likely to do something completely unconventional and make a huge mistake in the vetting process. Conventional wisdom I would give the following odds:

1. Mitt Romney 2 to 1. Two flip floppers for the price of one
2. Tim Pawlenty 4 to 1. Conventional wisdom has him pretty high, my guess is McCain goes elsewhere.
3. Rob Portman 8 to 1. Insiders favorite candidate
4. Charlie Crist 15 to 1. Possibly too gay for Republicans, otherwise a fine choice
5. Joe Lieberman 20 to 1. Wow. How much fun would this be?
6. Tom Ridge 25 to 1. Too moderate for the base.
7. Mike Huckabee 35 to 1. Great for evangelists, Rush Limbaugh's head finally explodes.
8. Condoleeza Rice 50 to 1. Probably helps the ticket more than anyone unless people finally realize she is grossly inept and utterly incompetent.
9. Bobby Jindal 75 to 1. Hard to make the case Obama is too inexperienced and then bring in a 37 year old VP despite the fact he is the right wing darling of the moment.
10. Fred Thompson 100-1. Conservative darling. If he named him late enough he would only have to work hard for 2 months. Even Fred could do that.

Psssst Do Something

If you are not familiar with progressive filmmaker Robert Greenwald, he has put out one of the great documentaries on the fleecing of the American Taxpayers called Iraq for Sale. Of late he has predominantly focused on educational films such as the one below on John McCain. Today he released a video called Send Karl Rove to Jail.

This film on John McCain shows that for someone who prides himself on independence, he certainly seems to have pretty big ties to the oil industry.



The more you see of John McCain, the more he reminds you of George W. Bush.

Site Change

As I mentioned in the header above, this site will be primarily focused on the coming elections. While I've enjoyed rambling on about James Posey or the latest iPhone upgrade, I thought given the state of the nation and the huge opportunity for a monumental change of direction any small role I can play is important.

Al Gore lost Florida and the Presidency by less than 300 votes. What do you think that margin would be today?

Summer Reading

Just back from a week away for a little relaxation in the sun. So first I have few words of advice, if you are going to read a book on a beach then keep moving your chair around to tan around the book. I currently am burnt all over my chest and stomach except for a white rectangle across my chest where Scott McClelland's book"What Happened" was.

I actually happy to have gotten the chance to read two books over vacation, ending a long drought of not reading books. I read McClelland's book and Jim Webb's book "A Time to Fight".

I had serious misgivings about buying McClelland's book. I agree a little with Bob Dole that if the guy had a problem with what was going on he should have spoken up instead of waiting for a 7 figure book deal. Upon reading the book, Scott is very honest about his role and shortcomings in the process. Scott's overarching theme of the book is that the Bush administration went into permanent campaign mode and often would attempt to vilify anyone that opposed them. I don't think any of his revelations were a big surprise but it is interesting to hear them from someone that was on the inside. Although I think he is a little naive in some of his observations and proposed solutions to the permanent campaign, but he is correct that the Clintons were great at it but Bush perfected it. The only real question is can anyone end it?

Jim Webb's book was more interesting. If you are not a political buff a quick bio on Jim. He held several positions in the military eventually becoming the Secretary of the Navy under Reagan. After leaving the position due to differences with policy, he went on to become a journalist (on military affairs) but more prominently a best selling award winning fiction author. In 2006 Jim Webb ran for Senate in Virginia against a powerful Republican Presidential Hopeful George Allen. Jim Webb won a narrow victory. Since becoming a Senator, he has done an outstanding job including his recent championing of the GI bill. I am happy to say I gave money to his campaign., because he has been such a great Senator in just 2 years.

Jim's book was a combination of an autobiography mixed in with his views on prominent defining issues our country is facing. I must admit that for a best selling author, I was surprised by how many tangents he went on in the book. That aside, after reading his book I am even more excited about the possibility of him being Obama's VP. That folks would be a dream team. Jim Webb would be a pitbull an Obama administration. One of the biggest problems of the Bush administration was that Bush surrounded himself by like minded individuals who all sang kumbaya as they went off merily to war. Jim Webb is nobody's lap dog (unlike let's say Condoleeza Rice). Jim Webb had amazing historical perspectives in his book about military tactics and would be an incredible asset. As passionate as Webb is about military tactics, he is just as passionate about the great divide in the class structure in the US. A Time to Fight is a great read.

Next up I need to read Audacity of Hope. I bought it months ago when it came out and haven't picked it up. I hear that author is doing pretty well on his own.

Got Bills?

Maybe this is a case of much ado about nothing but when a sitting Senator has an unpaid tax bill for 4 years on one of his homes it is an incredibly big embarrassment. John McCain wants to cut your taxes, but he wants to skip paying his entirely? Looks like he runs the household as well as he runs his campaign.

This was on top of his filings that show a minimum of $225,000 to $600,000 worth of credit card debt at rates as high as 25.9%. How does someone worth $100,000,000 have a credit card rate of 25.9%?

Somebody has to follow this up, and keep harping on her to release all her tax documents. There is something that is more interesting here than meets the eye.

Brilliant

I came across this great video of Tim Russert interviewing John McCain. It's this type of exchange that we will miss. Brilliant research and a perfectly delivered question. Watch it twice to get get the full detail of the quote that Russert refers to.

Mixed Bag

It's been a few days since I last posted and even those were bored ramblings while watching 10 hours of recitals this weekend. So I have a few thoughts stored up for this week's mixed bag.

Speaking of recitals, every year I wonder why we torture ourselves/kids this time of year. My son was signed up for soccer (which I coached) and baseball, my daughter had dance three days a week, and I also squeezed in all the Celtic home playoff games. Spring was a blur and I barely had time to go to the gym. That will end right next week. My wife, kids, and I are all spent and ready for a little r&r vacation to kick off the summer.

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Don Imus put his foot in his mouth the other day implying that Pacman Jones legal troubles were because he was black. He later changed his story to say that he was merely saying that he was getting a bum rap because he was black. He only changed his story to save his job. But really, why are we so sensitive. Yes he was making a derogative comment about blacks, but aren't his listeners adult enough to discern between a weak attempt at humor and real malice. My take is that either you agree with his premise or are mature enough to hear him say that, grumble a minute and move on. I can hear politically incorrect remarks and laugh or not and move on. His comments on the Rutgers girls were more egregious but if you don't like his comments, don't listen. If enough people don't listen, then he should be fired. That is why I stopped listening to the two racist morning men on WEEI Dennis and Callahan.

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I know there was a lot of surprise that Obama and McCain raised about the same amount of money in May. Let me put your concerns to rest (if you support Obama). This month Obama will raise close to $70mil, 3 x John McCain's take. This will come from his major donors most of whom only contributed to the primary fund and can now donate another $2300. Plus he will get a good portion of large Clinton donors that can donate $4600 each ($2300 for the primary and $2300 for the general). Additionally he will get his standard $20mil from internet donors (quick estimate is that he has raised $12mil online since Friday). The money disparity will only increase from here as the party coalesces behind him.

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Speaking of Obama, I am pegging his Electoral Vote total at >350. This will be a Reagan-Mondale thumping. Surprise wins will come from Alaska, Georgia, Louisiana, and North Carolina. I'll do a whole post on why this will be such a resounding Celtic like thumping when I am back from vacation.

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Speaking of the Celtics, the NBA draft is tomorrow (Thursday), my last fix until October. I promise not to do a post on this topic tomorrow.

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George Bush has 208 days left in office to try to accomplish anything. Can you ever remember a President less concerned with his legacy than this idiot? He is too lazy to make the effort.

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While we are on the topic of fear mongering useless Republicans, did you see McCain's Campaign Manager saying that it would be good for McCain's candidacy if there were another terrorist attack. Great idea, when can we schedule that? For him to say this it is either a) a case of a complete lack of message discipline on McCain's team or b) a butchered attempt a Bushlike fear mongering. I am going to stick with my belief that you shouldn't look for conspiracies where incompetence is a more likely scenario so I am going to pick a.
Just one of the major differences between the two campaigns. Barack vs Hillary was a case of a Major League team vs a good AAA team. Barack vs McCain is more like a Major League team vs a high school team. The only saving grace for McCain is that the RNC is pretty strong.

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Our Loss

This morning I had the rare chance to watch Meet the Press live as opposed to listening to the podcast. Brian Williams milk toast interviews remind us again how much Tim Russert will be missed during this election cycle. NBC announced today that Tom Brokaw would fill in tgtough election day. While that probably makes the most sense, he is an ancor first an interviewer second. Russert was an interviewer first and second.
I couldn't help think how much different this election will be without the forceful cross examination of campaign surrogates that only Tim Russert did effectively.

New Leaders in the Clubhouse

So now that the drama of the Democratic Primary seems over, it is a good time to update my predictions on Obama's prospective VP. A few months back I thought Jim Webb would be the choice but a lot has happened since then and I no longer think he is the front runner. So here's my list in order of likelihood in my opinion.

Hillary Clinton
Yes, Hillary Clinton is now my lead candidate in who I think Obama will pick. I think Barack showed a lot of strength in pushing back on getting pushed into it, but I have a feeling he is going to decide that she gives him the best chance of winning. Ironically, her biggest negative in the VP job was her biggest asset in running for President. Bill Clinton.

Wes Clark
In absence of Hillary herself, picking Wes probably would appease some of her supporters. Additionally, his Military experience would help negate some of McCain's perceived strength.

Tim Kaine
Tim was a very early Obama supporter and is Governor of a very key state. He is an extremely popular Governor and is more moderate than liberal. Would bring some executive experience to the ticket.

Jim Webb
Still a top tier candidate but some of his old statements about women in the military will further alienate Hillary Clinton supporters. If within the month or so the Democratic party comes together behind Barack and Clinton supporters are in the fold, then Jim Webb is the choice. If there is any doubt then he is out.

Kathy Sebelius
I must admit not knowing much about this Governor of Kansas. From what I have read recently she is just the type of change agent that would complement Barack. This may not sit well with Hillary Clinton who may want to be the history maker.

John Kerry
I admit this is kind of a dark horse but he has a lot of credentials that would be very useful to Barack. He's been fully vetted. His aloofness and his elitism perception work against him, but you have to remember, this is a guy that got 57 million votes in the general election and was only about 80000 votes short in Ohio in winning the election. He would probably be a better VP than he would have been as a President. Although he would have been a better President than current occupant.

Wow wow wow. Ray Allen just hit a three to put the Cs up by 4. (but I digress)

The last guy on my shortlist is....
Mike Bloomberg
Another longshot but would seem to give Obama some of what that worm Romney would give McCain. Someone with street cred on economic issues, someone with executive experience, but also someone that would lend credence to the notion that Obama is working across the aisle (although Bloomberg is now an Independent)