Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Odds of Winning


I was recently in a local coffee house where I was reading through some of the Local Newspapers (it may have been the Boston Phoenix). They had handicaps on the Democratic and Republican nominations. Seems like a fun idea, here are mine:


Dems

Hillary Clinton 2-1 Still expecting some damaging revelations.
Obama 3-1 Needs to start polling better with women (insert Bill Clinton joke here)
Edwards 8-1 Needs New Hampshier and Iowa for momentum.
Dodd 30-1 Needs a break and a lot of money.
Biden 50-1 Has denied that he is campaigning for Secretary of State job, then there is really no reason for him to stay in.
Richardson 75-1
Kucinich 1000-1 No hope unless all the other candidates contract the Bird Flu

Repubs
Guiliani 3-1 I respect Rudy, but I am semi expecting a major explosion that is going to take his candidacy down.
Thompson 5-1 When the race gets serious, will he work hard enough to win.
McCain 8-1 I still expect that when the debates get serious, he will be one of 2 or 3 to emerge.
Romney 10-1 Spent an average of $1000 per vote for Iowa money. For him to win, $250 mil is not enough. He should start calling Bloomberg.
Huckabee 12-1 He's my dark horse. How bad can an Arkansas Governor from Hope be?
Brownback 50-1 He's my front runner....to drop out next
Paul 100-1 Lot's of true believers, not enough voters.
Hunter 1000-1 He likes seeing his name in the papers for being part of debates. He will hang on until the end and no one will notice.

2 comments:

www.thegrandview.wordpress.com said...

Phil,
I think you have it right. I would argue that Romney should poll higher than McCain and that you can not underestimate the groundswell and grassroots campaign of Paul.
I agree with your assessment of the top two candidates in both parties.

EzBlogger said...

I agree conventional wisdom puts Romney ahead of McCain. I still have a feeling John McCain still has a run left in him whereas I think Romney is going to get very tired the more people look at him.

No question Ron Paul has the most passionate supporters. He is like Dean or Jerry Browne in the 80's. I just don't see him catching on with the masses.