Thursday, September 20, 2007

Trail Mix

It's been a couple of weeks since I have commented on my favorite pastime which is poll watching. (Insert get a life comment here______) Here are just a few observations over the past few weeks and maybe a prediction or two.

Mitt Romney's support in national polls has gone from about 15% to high single digits. He has fallen to fourth well behind McCain, Thompson and Giuliani, not too far ahead of Huckabee (but a healthy lead over Ron Paul). Mitt has not made any noticeable gaffs that would have his support drop in half. It is more a case of his shelf life expiring. Best wishes Mitt, enjoy your fall.

Fred Thompson has been stumbling and bumbling on the trail so far. The problem is that getting in late, he isn't as polished as those that have been campaigning for 10 months already. He is making about 3 appearances a day compared to about 8-10 from the other candidates. He is taking this week off leading to more discussion of him being lazy. I give him one debate, if he doesn't perform like a front runner, his support will drop like a rock and he will find an excuse to get out of the race.

Last Republican observation is that McCain is poling much better and is in the mid to high teens. I see Senator McCain and Mike Huckabee splitting the Thompson votes once he implodes. This should get him close to Rudy. The most interesting thing about McCain poling is that he actually runs better against Clinton than any of the other major Republican candidates. Senators McCain and Kerry debated Iraq on Meet the Press Sunday. Both performed very well in making their points. This should help McCain with the base.

On the good side of the street, Obama continues to trail Clinton big. Iowa is still close, but Barack is running in third, about 4-5 points down. No biggie except he seems very stagnated and is actually trending slightly down. Barack has boxed himself in on negative campaigning by making his underlyng theme 'choose hope over fear'. Pretty hard to trash Bill's wife while you are campaigning on positives. Maybe Elizabeth Edwards can bash Hillary for all of them. Needs a jump start soon to get moving again.

Hillary Clinton pretty much has run a perfect campaign thus far. In all the debates she shows warmth (she fakes it well) and intellect (no faking here). All the Republican bashing of her is only making her stronger. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. The race is hers to lose, which doesn't mean she won't lose but she is clearly the front runner.

Bill Richardson is actually hurting his VP chances in this race because he is pandering so much he is actually becoming the butt of many jokes. He may hang around another month or two and then drop out and throw his support to HRC.

John Edwards is going nowhere. He is putting all his eggs in one basket (Iowa) but has not sealed the deal. Problem with putting all his eggs in this basket is if he wins, it will be dismissed and he won't get much of a bounce. If he loses, he is done.

Finally, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden are going nowhere. Both are great Senators but not getting any traction. Being career Senators, they probably are enjoying the debates and attention so they will probably both stay in until a few early primaries pass and then leave quietly.

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