Monday, February 18, 2008

More Election Math


Senator Clinton and her team have consistently has minimized every state that Barack has won. They are either Red states that don't matter (Idaho, Nebraska, Virginia, Utah, North Dakota, and Colorado), caucus states that don't matter (Washington,Maine, Iowa, Alaska, Hawaii, Minnesota), or states with (too) high black population (Geogia, Alabama, Maryland, Louisiana, and Washington DC).

One of her surrogates even made this stupid/insulting remark today

“Superdelegates are not second-class delegates. The real second-class delegates are the delegates that are picked in red-state caucuses that are never going to vote Democratic.”


It is an interesting comment. Just for yuks, lets take a look at some vote totals in red states.

Louisiana
Obama 220,558 votes in the primary.
All Republican votes in their primary <160,000
Conclusion: he has a good chance in this primary.

Virginia
Obama 623,121 votes in primary
All Republican votes in their primary <490,000
Conclusion: he has a good chance in this primary.

South Carolina
Obama 295,091 votes in primary
McCain + Huckabee (1st and 2nd place) votes in their primary <290,000
Conclusion: he has a good chance in this primary.

Georgia
Obama 700,366 votes in primary
McCain + Huckabee (1st and 2nd place) votes in their primary <630,000
Conclusion: he has a good chance in this primary.

Alabama
Obama 302,000 votes in primary
Huckabee (1st place) votes in primary 230,000
Conclusion: he has a good chance in this primary.

These are just 6 states that Obama won that had primaries, you can't count vote totals in caucuses, but my guess is he will stand a good chance in winning some of those too. What red state is Hillary going to win other than Arkansas? What blue state does McCain have a chance to win against Obama?

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