Monday, July 21, 2008

Money in the Bank

I have been asserting that this race isn't as close as it seems, even if the popular vote is only 3-4% difference, I fully expect an Obama wave across the electoral map. 350-400 delegates are not out of the question as the race stands today. Things could happen that change this, but if the election were to be held today I would classify the states as follows:


In the bank (207 Delegates)
I know that on a few of these, the conventional wisdom is that they are swing states but in this climate there is no chance Iowa, Washington, Wisconsin or Oregon go to McCain

New York
Hawaii
Illinois
California
Massachusetts
Maryland
Rhode Island
Connecticut
New Jersey
DC
Vermont
Maine
Delaware
Washington
Wisconsin
Iowa
Oregon
On the way to the Bank (71 Delegates)
These states are trending heavily to Obama and are all far more likely to fall his way than not. The only possible exception is if Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is chosen as McCain's VP it could put Minnesota in play.

Minnesota
Michigan
Colorado
New Hampshire
Nevada
New Mexico
Pennsylvania
Filling out the bank slip (61 Delegates)
These states are the the most competitive of the election (although if Obama gets all the states listed above, he doesn't need any of these to get 270.
Virginia
Indiana
Ohio
Missouri
Montana
North Dakota
Check is in the mail (128 Delegates)
None of these would surprise me to go either way. The voter registration drives in Georgia, South Carolina, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi could make the difference. The African American population of these states are noted to give an indication of what a disproportionate turn out could mean to these states.
Almost all polling is smoothed to reflect the racial make up of the state. If African American's vote much higher than their population proportion then it wouldn't take much to flip many of these states Obama's way.
Florida
Georgia (30%)
North Carolina (21.7%)
Mississippi (37.1%)
Alaska
South Dakota
Texas
Louisiana (33%)
Alabama (26.3)

The Check Bounced (70 Delegates)
These states are not going blue even with the biggest electoral tidal wave since Reagan beat Mondale.

Tennessee
Arkansas
Utah
Wyoming
West Virginia
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Kansas
Nebraska
Idaho
Arizona








2 comments:

thegrandview said...

I hope you don't have to eat this post in Novemeber!!

Ez Blogger said...

Please, I'll have to delete the whole blog.