The End is Near

Andrea Mitchell is reporting that 10 Republican lawyers are going to Alaska to do a deeper vetting of Sarah Palin. I give her about a 50% chance that she will last two weeks as the VP nominee. If the ax falls quickly, McCain can still have time to smear Obama for two months to try to pull it out. Given how close and locked i voters seem to be, he may not even have a big drop in the polls.

It may not be one thing that does her in. It may be the slow drip of questionable stuff that undermines her and removes any semblance of credibility she may have. If there is one thing that I think could do her in is her association with AIP, the Alaskan Independence Party. It is hard to argue that you love America if you align yourself with a party that wants to secede from it. Republicans are a lot less forgiving of stuff like that than Democrats.

UPDATE: more info here

In the end if she does drop off, it will be unfortunate that Sarah is going to leave with her reputation and her family privacy in threads but her only real crime was thinking that she was qualified enough to be VP. Whether she stays or goes, it reflects poorly on McCain that he clearly didn't vet her thoroughly enough.