Monday, October 27, 2008

8 days left

8 days left. According to RCP has a 7.3% lead in national poles with 6% undecided. For the sake of argument, say undecided breaks 2-1 for McCain. This puts the margin at 5.3%. Higher voter enthusiasm, better ground game, cell phone only (not captured by polls) has to be worth at least 3 points not currently captured in the polls favorable to Obama. 8.3% is the absolute floor unless pictures of Obama burning a flag with Reverend Wright, Bill Ayers and Osama Bin Laden surfaces. Then the lead is cut to 3.

So with 8.3 in national polls, the states will be even wider. RCP with no toss up states shows all "battleground" states going to Obama and a 375-163 advantage. I am using that as a starting point but adding Georgia, Mississippi, and South Dakota to the list for a total count of 399. Montana, North Dakota, Arizona and South Carolina all knock on the door, but not quite over the top.

Mississippi you may laugh off since the closest poll is about 8%. Consider this, Mississippi is 38% African American and some estimates have the turn out between 95 and 100%. With that kind of turn out, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Alabama all come into play.

6 days before the election, the most eloquent speaking candidate we've seen in our lifetime is going to have a 1/2 hour of tv to make his case. You think he is going to seal the deal?

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