Monday, January 7, 2008

Dount Count Your Chickens....

As much as I would like to see both Hillary Clinton and Mitt Romney out of the race I am inclined to think that both are going to survive New Hampshire.

Mitt, for all his chameleon characteristics morphed into another candidate last night at the debate. Mitt as reformer was much more convincing than Mitt the true conservative. His debate performance won over the majority of undecided voters in the panel after the debate. As much as I dislike Say Anything Mitt, I was impressed with his debate performance. If I were tuning in for the first time, he would have gotten my vote. Fortunately I know better. The New Hampshire voters may know better, but he may actually survive the losses in Iowa and New Hampshire if he can get comfortable with the Mitt the reformer role (which was what helped him win the governorship).

If that doesn't work maybe he can morph into a Mitt the southern baptist preacher and see how that works.

As for Hillary, the reports of her demise have been greatly exaggerated. Despite the terrible week she has had, culminating in her nearly melting down today, she is still in this race. She will lose New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada by large margins. Then there are the two states which have been stripped of their delegates Florida and Michigan. Hillary is the only candidate on the Michigan ballot so all she needs to do is finish higher than uncommitted. None of the candidates are campaigning in Florida so her lead in the polls could stand there.

Then the schedule starts working against Obama. It will be hard for him to inspire the masses for Super Tuesday since he can't have that personal experience that he had with the voters of Iowa and New Hampshire. New York and California are two states that vote on Super Tuesday. Count NY in the HRC column and at least Arkansas as well. California becomes difficult for Obama as well, he could win there, but earlier polls have him 30 points back.

None of this may materialize, the Clinton losses may be too big in the early primaries to overcome but it would be a mistake for anyone to count her out completely.

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