Tuesday, January 29, 2008

One Race Now Over

Since of late I have been mostly focusing on the Dems, I will spend a post on the GOP. I am honoring the DNC's Florida ban by not commenting on the outcome of Florida.

At 8:30 I have officially declared the close race in Florida to John McCain. I'm sure AP and CNN will be picking up my projection shortly. Although only 40% of the polls have come in, the ones that represent the biggest outstanding votes are trending John McCain's way.

With Florida out of the way, nothing stands between here and Super Duper Tuesday. Here's how I expect it to go from here:

Rudy drops out tomorrow. After 7 races the former front runner will have collected less votes than Ron Paul. Rudy drops out tomorrow to avoid the embarrassment of losing New York to John McCain. John McCain is already polling ahead in New York by nearly 20pts over Rudy so it only gets worse from here. Rudy dropping out should benefit McCain.

Mike Huckabee won't drop out. He actually helps McCain by taking conservative votes from Romney. Since at this point Huckabee is posturing for his spot on the McCain ticket, he will do anything that is good for Mac.

With Romney losing Florida, that should be it for him. He will do okay on Super Tuesday, but the train has left the station and McCain is on it and Mitt is watching it. I hope the $40mil he spent on it was worth it to him.

So with the Republican Primary officially declared to be firmly in the win column for McCain by the PD Report. I would like to remind my regular reader that when everyone else wrote off McCain back in July and August, I said he would be in it in the end.

Now that the Republican race is over I am now free to spend more time bashing Hillary..


Anonymous said...

He can't win a national election. He's great and all but he's too damn old to lead this country. Of course, in 20 years when I am his age, I won't think that but there you go.

Ez Blogger said...

I like McCain, but the prospects of a war with Iran scares the hell out of me. Not just for the obvious reasons, but with an economy on the brink, we can't afford to spend $2 trillions and have $300/barrel oil.

Only way I think he wins is with Bloomberg weakening a Democrat in the Northeast.