Debate Thoughts

I let last night's debate sit fir a little while before commenting. While there wasn't a winner or loser in any dramatic fashion, it was a good night for Obama on a few fronts. Before getting into why it was a good night for Obama, a few thoughts on the debate overall:

• First off, Jim Leher was a great moderator in that he steered the conversation to issues rather than gotcha moments. It was kept very substantive the whole time and most of the time you didn't even notice the moderator.
• Obama clearly won the discussion at the beginning of the debate on fiscal concerns, also did very well in the Iraq/Afganistan discussion. McCain finished strong when the discussion moves to Pakistan and Iran.
• The all (not very) important discussion on body language the advantage goes to Obama. McCain couldn't look at Obama the whole night, was constantly dismissive of his opponent, While not important or substantive, it may be an indication why independants and women seemed to give Obama higher marks on the debate.
• This gem from John Dickerson on a Twitter update:

• McCain naming all those Eastern European leaders—the Shenkos and Plenkos-- it was like he was reading Dr. Seuss. about 18 hours ago from web

• Too often McCain referred to his contemporaries which subtly reminds people he is getting on in years. It may be great to bring up Reagan for the base, but when you add his other contemporaries (Kissinger, Alexander the Great), it just reminds people you are old.
• The exchange on Iraq where Obama reminded McCain that the war didn't begin in 2007 and he was wrong more than right did a lot to neutralize McCain's surge argument.
• If you watched on CNN and noticed the audience tracking at the bottom that showed audience responses to different candidates comments, it was interesting what the audience reacted to. When McCain referred to the surge, all three lines (Democrats, Republicans, and Independents) all were flatlined meaning not positive and not negative. Often when McCain spoke, there was a noticeable lift on the Republican responsethat in some case completely separated from the other two lines. When Obama spoke, the three lines moved together (although there was spearation between the three groups). Clearly McCain was not moving independants.
• Lastly, on CNN (and other networks from what I understand), Joe Biden made an appearance to drive home some of the points from the debate. Wolf Blitzer remarked afterwards that he would like to have interviewed Palin as well, but she wasn't made available.
  

So with some of that in mind, excluding external factors coming in, I give a slight but definate edge to Obama. Unfortunately for Senator McCain, there are external factors. He is getting his ass kicked in recent poling, his VP pick is incoherent and people are starting to notice, the Wall Street crisis, and his crazed decision to "suspend" his campaign are factors that are pulling the election into landslide territory. This was also a debate in which McCain was supposed to have the homecourt advantage. It was about foregin policy. With all of that working against him, a break even performance or a slight loss isn't going to help. He needed a big win and didn't get one.