Thursday, October 30, 2008

Current Math

If you have a hard time believing polls, on the Thursday before the election the map on Electoral showed Bush with 280 EV's, Kerry with 243 and 15 ties. From that Thursday to Tuesday's election only 3 states flipped. On the Thursday before the election Florida was leaning Kerry, Michigan was leaning Bush and NJ was a toss up. Other than that the other 47 states were forecasted correctly. Also worth noting, both Michigan and Florida were both 2 point margins.

Fast forward 4 years, the same site has it as 375 for Obama, 157 for McCain and 6 ties. Of Obama's 357 projection, 311 are currently tracking 6 points ahead or more. They ain't flipping.

For further proof that this ain't flipping, consider these fun items:

  • The closest margin in the polls for any state won by Kerry is a 7 point spread in Obama's favor in New Hampshire.
  • Add to that a Bush state, Iowa which Obama locked up early and often and you have 259 electoral votes.
Those states are not changing.

Barack would then need to win 11 electoral votes which he could do by winning Florida or Ohio or Virginia or North Carolina or Georgia or Missouri or Indiana or any two of Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Montana, South Dakota, North Dakota or Mississippi.

I have a better chance of being on the cover of next month's GQ than John McCain has of flipping the polls in all of those states. Rest assured, Tuesday will be a late night. I will be staying up late to see if the Democrats get their 60 seats in the Senate.

2 comments: said...

Ok now that's what I was looking for yesterday.Better late than never.

Ez Blogger said...

this one was for you!!!