Saturday, January 5, 2008

Roads Out of Iowa

I do take a little pride in that a few of my August predictions are playing out. ack in August when nobody heard of Mike Huckabee, I pegged him as having a legitimate chance. Fast forward 5 months and he wins Iowa and stands a good chance at stringing together a bunch of Southern wins and being a real player. I had also predicted that John McCain would rise from the ashes when most of the media had written off his campaign. One more prediction that will play out shortly is that Fred Thompson would be an early drop out. He clearly is looking for an excuse.

So with that as my credentials, here is my handicap coming out of Iowa.

Hillary Clinton- After her lousy showing in Iowa, she is showing less signs of inevitability. She will not go quietly, the Clinton's have a tremendous political machine. It may start to crumble, but it can not be discounted. Unless HRC loses New Hampshire and South Carolina to start the campaign with three losses, she is still the front runner for good or for bad.

John Edwards- He needed the win in Iowa. From here on in until he drops out after Super Tuesday he will finish no better than third in any contest. He may stick around and collect delegates hoping to keep either Obama or Clinton from getting a majority and using his delegates to broker a VP spot.

Bill Richardson- Provided the best spin of a fourth place finish outside of Rudy Giuliani. He is sticking around under the delusion that he has momentum.

Barrack Obama- An impressive win in Iowa gives him a shot at beating Clinton. He needs to follow Iowa with wins in NH and South Carolina to keep the pressure on. Now that he has established himself as a viable candidate it will be interesting to see if Gore plays king maker and endorses him.

Mitt Romney- After spending so much money and time in Iowa, losing to Huckabee is just about a knock out blow. We'll see if McCain can finish the job in New Hampshire.

John McCain- After Huckabee and Obama, he was the next big beneficiary of Iowa. Romney losing there opens the door in New Hampshire for McCain. If he wins there he can vault to front runner status.

Rudy Giuliani- By skipping Iowa he essentially missed out on all the free media coverage. He could still be a factor by winning big states like NY, Florida and California.

Mike Huckabee- His big win will be followed by more in the South. He will win enough bible belt states to be a factor at the convention. Coming down to speak to supporters while Mitt was doing the same, denied Mitt national coverage of his remarks. While this may have violated some unwritten etiquette, it was a classic slap at Mitt who deserves one or two.


Anonymous said...

Doesn't Gore dislike HRC? An Obama endorsement sounds plausible.

Ez Blogger said...

Can't stand her. My guess is he does it just before Super Tuesday to seal the deal.