Monday, May 5, 2008

One Last Big Election Eve

After tomorrow, there are no more big primaries on the docket. Tomorrow represents Hillary's last time to show she can not just dent Barack Obama's armor but to draw blood. To do that she needs to win Indiana by a big margin and pull an upset in North Carolina. The former is possible, the latter is extremely unlikely.

If she fails to do that the Super Delegate swarm will move from a steady stream to Obama to a flood. As it is, Barack has made a sizable dent in her once large lead of 150 more Super Delegates to a difference of about 13.5.

So my quick prediction for tomorrow night is that Hillary will win in Indiana by about 6.5 netting her about 5 extra delegates. Barack will win North Carolina by about 9 and take home an extra 10 delegates.

If that happens Barack will have 1845 Delegates and will need only 180 of the remaining 505 delegates including Supers. After tomorrow a large flood of Supers supporting Barack and defecting from Clinton will commence UNLESS she wins both.

This time tomorrow if the split the primaries, you will know it is over.

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