Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Mixed Bag - Homestretch Edition

Less than 4 weeks to go until November 4th. In the last 4 weeks things have changed pretty drastically, what will the economy look like by the time the election rolls around?

If the last few days are any indication, the next 4 weeks are going to be incredibly negative. Dana Milbank of the Washington Post had an article yesterday that showed the great ugliness that was being stirred up an McCain-Palin rallies. Here's a excerpt:

Worse, Palin's routine attacks on the media have begun to spill into ugliness. In Clearwater, arriving reporters were greeted with shouts and taunts by the crowd of about 3,000. Palin then went on to blame Katie Couric's questions for her "less-than-successful interview with kinda mainstream media." At that, Palin supporters turned on reporters in the press area, waving thunder sticks and shouting abuse. Others hurled obscenities at a camera crew. One Palin supporter shouted a racial epithet at an African American sound man for a network and told him, "Sit down, boy."
It's one thing to run the Britney Spears/Paris Hilton ads of belittlement, it is another thing to whip people up inot a frenzy where they shout "terrorist" and "kill him" as they have at recent Palin and McCain rallies. Where does this anger come from? Top of the ticket.

This is a classic story of why you know it's a tough year for Republicans...Ben Smith via Andrew Sullivan.

Ben Smith gets an e-mail:

      An Obama supporter, who canvassed for the candidate in the working-class, white Philadelphia neighborhood of Fishtown recently, sends over an account that, in various forms, I've heard a lot in recent weeks.

      "What's crazy is this," he writes. "I was blown away by the outright racism, but these folks are f***ing undecided. They would call him a n----r and mention how they don't know what to do because of the economy."

Coates said it best a few days ago: "Racism is a luxury that, at this point, a lot of white voters can ill-afford. I think a crucial number of them know that."

McCain could lose the racist vote? What's next? Bill O'Reilly?

If they were to give Rookie of the Year awards for political Blogs, would narrowly beat out A couple of great stats from the 538 sight:

  • If the election were held today there is a 90.5% chance that Barack Obama would win. (which also means that there is a 9.5% chance, Sarah Palin could be a heartbeat away from being a national embarassment).
  • There is almost a 77% chance that Obama carries every one of the Kerry states while only a 0.33% chance McCain carries all Bush states.
  • There is a 33% chance of there an Obama landslide (375+ electoral votes)
So can I throw out a few more statistical possibilitities?

  • There is a 49% chance that more than 15 college students will be hospitalized next week after downing a drink every time McCain says "my friends" at next week's debate.
  • There is a 0% chance that Palin will do any interviews that are anything more than infomercials.
  • There is a 50% chance McCain throws at least one last hail mary pass.
If and when this campaign ends, I can not wait for the post game analysis to dissect where the McCain campaign went wrong. But I aske you, if McCain never went down this negative road and was the old affable McCain to the press and picked someone of stature as a VP, would he have a better shot than he has now? I have to think yes.

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