Teetering on the Brink

Even though the Dow has shed 2000 plus points in three months, tomorrow appears to be a day of reckoning. For the early part of the year the stock market inexplicably went up continuously despite some pretty ominous signs is the economy. The housing market has been terrible for almost 2 years and has become much worse of late. In California alone, there have been 400,000 foreclosures with estimates of another 200,000 on the horizon.

Banks are writing off billions and are being sued for billions more. Cleveland is suing a number of banks for irresponsible loan practices that have resulted in foreclosures and a rapid decline of property values and eroding the tax base.

Retail sales which have long propped up the economy are falling off a cliff. When a company like Target has negative 5 comps for December, that is a very ominous sign.

Anticipating tomorrow's market is like anticipating the post 9/11 drop. We knew it would be bad, it is just a matter of how bad. A 600 point drop may look like a conservative estimate with all the international declines this week already.

With the fed dropping rates to solve the housing crisis when they should be increasing rates to ward off the recession, it is certainly making this more complex.
The question really is, where from here. How deep is this recession going to be?

Can the government afford a stimulus package when we are spending $2 trillion in Iraq?

All signs are ominous beyond what the market does tomorrow, this week, or this year. Although a big hit tomorrow could be a big blow to the already fragile psyche
of the American consumer.

One Year and Counting

Lost amid the coverage of the Presidential election is that we hit a milestone this weekend. We now only have one year left of the worst President in history. When I look at the list of potential Presidents, I can't think of any (ok, maybe Huckabee) that would be worse than the current occupant.

This Presidency has been so incredibly bad, that Republicans no longer defend him.

I could list out the constant incompetence that they have displayed over 7 years but most of that is old news. Upon reelection in 2004, Bush stated that he won political capital and he intended to use it. During the last three years since he made those remarks, I can not think of one accomplishment that he can point to.

The next President is going to be faced with some extremely serious issues that will need to be addressed quickly. The new President will face a recession that could be the worst of my lifetime, an accelerated trend on global warming, a national debt that is spiraling out of control, a health care crisis of 50 million uninsured that is bound to grow during the recession, a looming Social Security/Medicare shortfall, a war that shows no signs of ending, and a continuing threat from extremists.

With all of the problems that face us we need a President that is sprinting to the finish line not one that is running out the clock. One year from now I hope we get someone that is going to work hard and address all the things that have been largely ignored for 8 years.

Happy New Year!!!

I've been very lax of late in updating my blog. It certainly isn't because I've been busy as I have taken 10 days off from work and done just about nothing for the first 7 of them.

Since it is the last day of 2007, there is no sense in looking back only forward. So I am going run off some predictions for 2008.

Politics
Let's start on the easy one. The Democratic Presidential Nominee will be Hillary Clinton. She will sweep through the primaries and coast to the nomination. Hillary will select John Edwards as her running mate. There weren't a lot of takers for the job since most feel that a VP in her administration will be even less influential than a normal VP since Bill would be very influential.

The Republican side will be a brokered convention. Rudy will win some big delegate rich states like NY, California, and Florida. Huckabee will win bible belt south, McCain and Romney will each win their share. The eventual nominee will be John McCain as the other nominees eventually concede, Romney will be the last holdout. McCain will select Huckabee as his runningmate to appease the Christian Right.

McCain and Clinton will not be alone in the race as Bloomberg Hagel run together as independents. The Bloomberg Hagel ticket makes it interesting by hurting Clinton in traditionally blue states leaving John McCain as the President of the United States.

The Democrats pick up 4 additional Senate seats but lose a few Congressional seats although not enough to lose the majority. The expanded majority in the Senate will be enough for the Dems to remove Lieberman from his committee roles which eventually nudges Lieberman into a role in the McCain administration.

Sports
The Patriots will not win the Superbowl. The Colts will repeat. The Patriots game against the Colts will go down as one of the classic sports games of all time.

Don't feel sad Boston fans because the Celtics will win the Championship and the Red Sox will repeat. I say this while watching them dismantling the previously hot Lakers to complete their road sweep. The Celtics will be given a boost by the late acquisition of Sam Cassell. The Sox will win out on the Santana sweepstakes.

World
George Bush completes his final year of his administration by accomplishing nothing to make it a perfect 8 for 8.

Pakistan will become even more unstable and will result in the US pulling troops from Iraq and stationing them in Afganistan at the ready in case Musharraf falls.

Business/Economy
Despite forecasts of an improvement in the economy, the US economy continues to sputter and slips into a recession.

Quick Links

Every few weeks there is another tease about Al Gore running for President. Usually after I resign myself to it not happening. Now with speculation running rampant him winning the Nobel Peace Prize and using that as a springboard to run for President.

I used to like Rudy a lot. However, the more I see him these days the more he reminds me of GWB. This Slate article shows that he has a little aversion to the truth that sounds way too familiar. The fact that Joe Biden slammed him at a recent debate, saying he is "the most uninformed person on American foreign policy now running for president" only further confirms the comparison.

Sometimes people never learn. USFL, XFL, WLAF, etc have all failed. Yet for some reason two new leagues are begining with some potentially deep pocketed owners (Mark Cuban). The best part of the article shows Tim Crouch trying out. That will be good news for those that own Tim Crouch jerseys (there is an inside joke in this last comment).

One of the gazillion political newsletters I received this week contains an interesting study on what would happen if the Electoral College were changed from a winner take all to a District by District plan. Unfortunately, Al Gore still loses (and Nixon beats Kennedy in 1960).

For those of us with satellite radio, the merger in waiting of Xm and Sirius is confounding. Mobil and Exxon merged with no issues but two little satellite companies are taking months. Interesting status of the merger noting that Sirius has spent $1mil in copying alone for the 6 mil pages of legal documents submitted. (sounds like they are getting ripped off)

Quick Links

First off is a quick interview with the Real President Clinton. President Clinton handicaps the Republican race for President and compares Barack Obama to himself when he ran.

I'm not always a fan of Peggy Noonan of the WSJ Editorial Page, but in this article is right on the money. This article says a lot about the lack of a serious dialogue and refusal of people to listen to those they disagree with.

Slate has an article about learning from the mistakes of President Bush. Also in the article is a mention of Saddam offering to leave Iraq one month before the invasion. Every time I think it is impossible for me to think less of this incompetent administration, I read something that proves me wrong.

Add two lawsuits to the list of problems for Michael Vick. Two banks are suing him for $2 mil each. When it rains, it pours (cats and dogs).

If you like lists, Forbes has the best. From the Celebrity 100, the most overpaid executives, the top 2000 global companies, and so on. Stop by this site, lots of interesting stuff.

Quick Links

First link is a series of military photos of the WTC towers on 9/11. Some of these are aerial footage shots I've never seen before.

A year ago Liberal Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee lost his Senate race despite having an approval rating of over 60%. The reason he lost was that Rhode Island voters felt it was more important to the country to have a Democrat Majority than a Senator they liked. If he weren't running as a Republican he would have won by a large majority. He has now rectified that problem a year too late.

Fox is reporting that U.S. Officials Begin Crafting Iran Bombing Plan. Does anyone envision a positive outcome on this? WTF!

Much to everyone's delight, despicable scumbag reclaims his rightful throne this week from Michael Vick. SI has a nice recap of why OJ is the most reviled figure in sports. The next time I want to hear about OJ is when his judge rejects his parole id in 20 years.
Stupid Ass!

I must admit, I liked Elizabeth Hasselbeck on Survivor more than The View. Although I find most of her opinions naive and ill informed, she is on an opinion show and she has the right to express those opinions. Somebody please tell that to Barry Manilow. Barry, Democrats encourage free speech, your stance brings you to the level of Ann Coulter.

Quick Links

I find this amusing. A 23 year old college student was kicked off Southwest Airlines for being 'under dressed'. Article here. If she were on my flight I wouldn't be offended to sit next to her!

Tonight I was in the emergency room with my daughter (who broke her hand) and I read this article about an amazing 93 year old man that is widely credited with saving a billion people. What's wrong when we know Lindsay Lohan's father visited her in rehab but we do not know this guy's story?

Another interesting article from the same magazine is about Al Qaeda Family Feud. Seems like there is a fracture between different factions. It's important when you consider that the demise of many larger than life figures come from people close to them. Et tu Brute?

Here's a different point of view on the state of the Republican Party. Evidently the WSJ doesn't editorial page down't thing the Republicans are reeling, they think "the Republican presidential campaign comes into focus". I don't see it, but I always like to listen (or in this case read) opposing points of view.

Last link is an article on Michael Dell and Can he Refocus His Namesake?. I've always liked Dell PC's and recommended them until recently, now I tell anyone that will listen to get a Mac. It will be interesting to see what changes Dell has in store to get back to being the #1 PC maker.

From the great thinkers that brought us the Iraq war.....

Last week in my post regarding the resignation of Turd Blossom I commented that when you silence dissent and opposition you get well thought out policies like the Iraq war. This administration has had a scortched earth policy towards opposing points of view just ask Joe Wilson. and Paul O'neil. and Max Cleland. And Richard Clarke. and Bunnatine H. Greenhouse. (yes even bunny)And Colin Powell. And Flynt Leverett. And James E Hansen and the list goes on.

This is a fascinating reading about how the White House keeps the President surrounded by like minded members of his constituency. The actual Advance Manual is a great read

Please note: all my future posts will be done from Gitmo if I can get PC access.


Sic 'em With the Rally Squad
And other tips for dealing with demonstrators from the Presidential Advance Manual.
By Dahlia Lithwick
Posted Monday, Aug. 20, 2007, at 6:36 PM ET
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Late last week, the federal government settled a lawsuit with a pair of Texans who were arrested in 2004 for wearing anti-Bush T-shirts at a Fourth of July event in Charleston, W.Va. That's right, friends, $80,000 (of your taxpayer dollars) will be paid out to Jeff and Nicole Rank, whose suit against Gregory J. Jenkins—former deputy assistant to the president and director of the White House Office of Presidential Advance—has been dismissed.

White House spokesman Blair Jones managed to turn lemons into lemonade with the statement last week that "the parties understand that this settlement is a compromise of disputed claims to avoid the expenses and risks of litigation and is not an admission of fault, liability, or wrongful conduct." This is, of course, vintage Bush, gloriously reminiscent of that Simpsons episode in which Homer arrives late to collect Bart in the pouring rain after soccer practice, then lectures: "I know you're mad at me right now, and I'm kinda mad, too. I mean, we could sit here and try to figure out who forgot to pick up who till the cows come home. But let's just say we're both wrong, and that'll be that."

Because, you see, what the Ranks did wrong was attend an open-to-the-public, taxpayer-sponsored Independence Day speech by the president on the grounds of the state capitol, sporting homemade anti-Bush T-shirts. Their shirts had a red circle and a diagonal bar covering the word Bush. (His said, "Regime change starts at home," on the back; hers said, "Love America, Hate Bush.") The Ranks neither said nor did anything to disrupt the speech, but when they refused to remove their T-shirts, they were, at the direction of White House event staff, handcuffed, booked, photographed, and fingerprinted, charged with trespassing, and held for several hours in jail. (The charges were subsequently dismissed, and the city of Charleston has apologized.) Nicole Rank was also temporarily suspended from her job with FEMA.

The White House suggestion that, hey, both sides did something bad here, distorts one obvious truth: The only bad thing these citizens did was peacefully disagree with the president in an open political forum. And while Rush Limbaugh and Angelina Jolie may be able to get away with talking exclusively to people who worship them, the president should not.

The details of the Rank lawsuit and the cases involving similarly harassed folks are always fascinating: citizens removed from a Bush event in Denver because of an offensive bumper sticker on their car outside ("No More Blood For Oil"); a Tucson student barred from a Bush event for sporting a Young Democrats T-shirt; Wisconsin citizens forced to unbutton their shirts before attending a Bush speech, only to have an attendee wearing an anti-Bush T-shirt ejected from the event. But the best thing to have emerged from the Rank litigation was the official—if heavily redacted—Presidential Advance Manual (dated October 2002), which, although stamped "SENSITIVE" and not to be "duplicated ... replicated ... photocopied or released to anyone outside of the Executive Office of the President, White House Military Office or United States Secret Service," is now posted right here at the ACLU's Web site.

There is so much that is entertaining in the Advance Manual, it's hard to know where to begin. Sure, it's not a surprise anymore that it is official White House policy to use staff to foster "a well-balanced crowd," with well-balanced evidently defined as a subtle melange of those citizens who adore the president and those who revere him. The key to achieving such a balance, according to the manual, lies in "deterring potential protesters from attending events" and "preventing demonstrators." Nor should anyone be surprised that the president is to be shielded from dissent at taxpayer-funded presidential appearances and at "rallies, roundtables and tours" in equal measure. Only those individuals and groups that are "extremely supportive of the Administration" (emphasis theirs) will be seated in the area between the stage and the main camera platform.

The manual cautions that event staff "must decide if the solution would cause more negative publicity than if the demonstrators were simply left alone," but it's also full of ingenious ideas for dealing with a flare-up of dissent. Among the White House tactics are the subcontracting of censorship to event "rally squads" composed of helpful "college/young republican organizations, local athletic teams, and fraternities/sororities." (What, no mathletes?) These obliging rally squads can then "use their signs and banners as shields between the demonstrators and the main press platform." The use of a "long sheet banner ... in strategic areas around the site" is similarly smiled upon. Lest you believe that the Big Brother sheet represents the full extent of the speech suppression, however, the manual provides that, "As a last resort, security should remove the demonstrators from the event."

The Advance Manual's finest moments come in its urgent, earnest drive to protect not just the television cameras but also the president himself from the ugliness of the dread "demonstrators." Certainly, "if it is determined that the media will not see or hear" demonstrators, event staff can ignore them. But event staff must involve themselves in "designating a protest area preferably not in view of the event site or motorcade route." In other words, all this suppression of dissent isn't just to create a puppet show for the cameras. It's also about sock puppets for the president, who—if he could just be shielded from the mean T-shirts—might still believe his approval ratings soar into the mid-90s. The Ranks' peaceful protest at the West Virginia state capitol somehow became an act of "trespassing" only because the president was there.

It's disturbing enough to learn from the Advance Manual that the White House has adopted an official policy of shouting down or covering up dissenting viewpoints with large sheets in order to deceive Americans at home into believing the president is universally adored. But that this official policy also exists to protect the tender sensitivities of the president himself is beyond belief.

George W. Bush is certainly entitled to choose his White House advisers, attorneys general, counselors, friends, and pets based solely on the their inability to tell him no. The rest of us have increasingly come to question the wisdom of such insularity. We just can't do it in his presence.

Dahlia Lithwick is a Slate senior editor.

White House Advance Manual

Quick Links

Here's a few links of articles I found intersting:

Purple America: Can the DNC's 50-State Strategy Turn Red States Blue?. Long article on the progress and politics of Howard Dean's 50 state strategy.

The candidate that wasn't. Michael Bloomberg is ruling out running for President. Too ad, it would have made for a very interesting race.

Where Bush's Presidency 'jump the shark'? For me it was Inauguration Day, but for many others it was the aftermath of Katrina. Time has an article on the problems that lead up to the disaster and still continue. How a perfect storm of big-money politics, shoddy engineering and environmental ignorance is setting up the city for another catastrophe.

Slate looks at the Guiliani essay on foreign affairs. The writer takes exception on most of the essay and grades it a c- for a freshman course on international relations.

Gambling Tim Donaghy is naming names of other referees that gamble. Gambling is against thr NBA bylaws for referees (but not for Michael Jordan). This could mean up to 20 referees may be fired. If there is any luck, Violet Palmer is one of them.

Quick Links

How much kids cost
MSNBC has a breakdown of how much kids cost. Having just arrived back from a week of Disney, let me tell you that these numbers are greatly understated.

Romney Iowa Victory Not Imressive by Any Standard
Talk about buying votes. Romney spent estimated between $2-4 mil in Iowa in getting 4500 votes that mean nothing in a straw poll.

The Contours of a New Electorate
Another landslide in the making. Greenberg report on the state of the electorate.

How aout these two differences in opinion The subprime-lending crisis is worse than you think, and could crush financial and real-estate markets for years. and The Pain, and Gain, of the Subprime Meltdown

While we are at it. Here's another pretty gloomy report on the state of the economy.
Learn from the fall of Rome, US warned.